Auckland’s housing shortage worsening with new dwelling consents still falling well short of demand

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10月に始まった、規制の変更でマーケットは沈静化を示しているが、下記の記事などをみると面白いなと思う。年間、13000件の新築着工目標件数を考慮すると、月に1100件程度の新築許可申請認可が必要になる。が、実際には、8月741件、9月は643件と半分もいない計算である。

 

また、実際に、土地開発なども含んで工事をしている建築会社も10月からの市場の沈静化でかなり様子見状態に入っている状態で、建築許可はあっても実際に工事はしないという現状が実際に周りで起きている。実際、TRADEMEがもっともよい指標だが、かなり値段を出して売っている物件が増えてきている。

 

3か月前などは、そんなことはほとんどなく、すべて、AUCTIONばかりで売れ残りもほとんどないような状態だった。実際に我々も土地開発案件購入をいろいろと試みたが、なかなか、納得する価格帯での購入などが難しい状態だったが、エージェントなどから今は、逆に買わないかと情報が入ってくる状態になっている。ここで、もっとも重要なことは、2008年の痛みを知っているために、多くの土地開発+新築建設をしていたような建設会社も様子をみる状態になっている。そのため、実際の新築着工件数も下がっていくだろう。

 

それと、今月などは、毎年恒例の年末の建築市場のお休みでほとんどの大工が仕事を受けれない状態になっている。そうでなくても、大工が少ない状態でそうなると、どうなるか?どうしても年内などにしたい場合は、大工の言い値で工事をしてもらうことになる。なので、とんでもない金額で工事をしている情報もかなりある。

 

最後に、少し役所側の対応についてだが、過度な建築法令やインスペクションの適時や適性なサービス逸した仕事も建設価格を上昇させている要因が多く。MASTERBUILDER協会では、団体で意見書を出すというレベルまで来ている。

 

総合的にニュージーランド住宅事情を考えると、金融市場からの視点などでは、沈静化を少し示しているが、新築許可申請の減少、実際の新築建設の減少、建設会社の価格上昇、このKEYになる3要素の影響で、現場サイドの物理的要因で今後もAFFORDABLE and COMFORTABLEの家の提供はなかなか難しい現状は続くのではないかと思う。

 

建築許可減少の記事)

The number of new dwelling consents issued in Auckland dropped sharply for the second month in a row in September, falling well short of what is required to ease the region’s worsening housing shortage.

Statistics NZ said 643 new dwelling consents were issued in Auckland in September, down from 741 in August and 1116 in July. September’s 643 is the lowest number since February when 528 dwelling consents were issued.

That’s well short of what is required just to house the region’s migration-driven population growth, with Auckland Council estimating at least 13,000 new homes a year need to be built in the region just to keep pace with its growing population.

That would require an average of 1083 new homes a month to be built, which means just 60% of that figure was consented in September, suggesting the region’s housing shortage is getting worse.

In the year to September 8721 new dwellings were consented in Auckland, which is exactly two thirds of of the 13,000 homes a year the council has estimated are required.

“Auckland consent numbers were broadly flat for the month in seasonally adjusted terms although we would point out that at an annual level of a little over 8700, supply is still way below what is needed to meet the long term shortage in housing that Auckland is experiencing,” Westpac economist David Norman said in a First Impressions newsletter on the figures.

Nationally there were 2242 new dwelling consents issued in September, little changed from the 2291 issued in August, and well down from the 2824 issued in July.

There was a big jump in the number of consents issued in the Waikato, with 320 new consents issued in the region in September, up from 233 in July and equivalent to 50% of the total number of consents issued for the entire Auckland region.

In the Wellington Region only 126 new dwelling consents were issued in September which was less than in Waikato or the Bay of Plenty (188 consents) and only just ahead of Otago (115 consents).

In Canterbury the number of consents also declined for the second month in a row, falling to 525 in September compared to 596 in August and 650 in July (refer to the interactive chart below for the monthly dwelling consent figures for all regions).

Construction of commercial and other non-residential buildings continues to boom, with $619 million of non-residential consents issued in September, with new educational buildings being the biggest driver of that, accounting for $214 million of non-residential consents issued in the month.

Shops were the second biggest non-commercial category, with consents issued for $101 million of retail space in September.

 

 

 

 

http://www.interest.co.nz/property/78385/aucklands-housing-shortage-worsening-new-dwelling-consents-still-falling-well-short

Author

おか部 雅彦
おか部 雅彦Japan homes Directer
Born in Japan in 1973. At University I learned Japanese History.

After graduation, I worked at a major Dental material company as a top salesman. In 2002 I firstly set my foot on land in New Zealand, and have started to engage in NZ Construction firm since 2004. From the 8 years' experiences at construction sites and sales experiences in Japan, I devote myself to satisfy customers from consultation to construction and after care services.

Within the first 4 years after the foundation, half of Japan Homes' customers were similar ages of mine. So that their life environment such as a number of children were also similar to mine therefore I was able to understand the customers' situations and wants more. Meanwhile there are also many customers of my father's generation, which is always appreciated because I can learn lots of good things from them.

We try our best to provide services that you satisfy, such as schedule, quality and after care service.

"I can trust you with any projects." "You are the man who I can rely on when I am in trouble." I enjoy working to get these words more times and to create as more smiles as possible.

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